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One man's journey to financial independence.

April 2019 Dividend Challenger CCC Rankings

by



ncf_power_ranking_b3_576.jpg
Photo courtesy of ESPN

This is one of my favorite screen to do! I’m sorry I haven’t had time to do one of these in a while. I know many of you thought it was useful so I’m going to try to start these again. Instead of combining the Champions, Contenders and Challengers, I plan to break it up into 3 articles.

What I Did

I decided to take the CCC spreadsheet and rank the stocks based on their 10-year YOC. If you are unfamiliar with what Yield-On-Cost is (YOC) then refer to my get started tab or see below for an example. If you don’t know about David Fish’s Champion, Challenger and Contender (CCC) spreadsheet then you are doing yourself a disservice, the link is also on my “get started” tab. The CCC list is now managed by Seeking Alpha author Justin Law.

Let’s say you purchased a stock at $10/share in 2013 that paid a 4% dividend or $0.40/share. In order to achieve a 10-year YOC of 10% that stock would need to pay out at least $1.00/share by 2023.

You may wonder why I care about a 10-year YOC instead of just the 1,3,5 and 10-year CAGR’s. The main factor that the CAGR leaves out is the starting dividend yield. The starting dividend in combination with the dividend growth rate will greatly influence your returns.

There’s a variation of this screen used alot by members of the Seeking Alpha community and it’s coined the “Chowder Rule”. This can also be found now on the CCC sheets. The rule basically adds the starting yield with the dividend growth rate (5-year CAGR) and looks for it to be higher than a certain number. While this can be a useful screen, there is still a discrepancy between dividend payers that have different growth rates but still arrive at the same number. For instance, a 3% yielder with 5% growth would get the same grade (an 8) as a 5% yielder with 3% growth. To me this is like adding apples to oranges. Holding a lower yielding stock with a higher growth rate will at some point provide higher returns assuming the growth rates don’t change. My 10-year YOC ranking would give this 3% and 5% yielder a 4.9 and 6.7 respectively.

Why I Did It

The purpose of this screening process will be to identify companies that have a high expected dividend growth rate combined with a starting yield that would produce greater returns. These companies may be good candidates for further research.

How I Did It The first step was to sort all stocks by their current dividend yield and eliminate any stocks not paying at least a 1% yield.  

Next I sorted all columns by TTM P/E and eliminated every stock with a TTM P/E over 30. I do realize this eliminates a lot of REIT’s, MLP’s, and telecom stocks. I’m ok with this since I’m not really targeting these stocks right now. We are also late in the bull cycle and I want to focus a little more on value.

Then I decided to eliminate any Contenders with a 5-Year CAGR < 10%. This screen eliminates a lot of slow growing companies like utilities.

I’ve added a new screen, PEG, that is PE/Growth. I didn’t apply this to Champions but on my Contenders and Challengers list I eliminated any Dividend Contenders with a PEG ratio greater than 2 and any Challengers with a PEG ratio greater than 1.5.

Next I took the latest CCC sheet and added some new columns to calculate a 10-year YOC using each stock’s 1,3, 5 and 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). I will call these new metrics 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5, and 10YOC10 for simplicity. After sorting, I looked for any companies that had a 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5 or 10YOC10 of 10% or higher.

Next, I wanted to look to see if the DGR was increasing or decreasing. I highlighted in red the 10-year YOC’s of companies that were both reducing their rate of increases and still under 10%.

This is a previous example of how it looked:

Companies got credit for increasing their dividends at faster rates. For example: The 10YOC5 for AWR in the example above was 4.97 and did not get highlighted in red because its 10YOC5 was higher than its 10YOC10 of 4.09.
     Next, I decided to remove any company that had a 10YOC1 in the red for Champions and a 10YOC1 or 10YOC3 in red for Contenders and Challengers.
For the Example Champions list above this removed LEG, MDT, NUE and WMT.   This new round of elimination dropped the list sizes for the Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 2(-6), 13(-6) and 48(-37) respectively.  

My Results

Challengers

I’m currently in the market for an industrial to add to my list. There’s a few here I don’t know much about. Air Lease Corp. (AL) has an amazing 7 years streak with dividend raises averaging no less than 30%. At this rate, you’d have a YOC in 10 years approaching 30%.

I’ll also look at Valero energy. I didn’t realize the large dividend increases they are having plus they start with a juicy 4.2% yield.

According to the numbers, Citizens Financial Group (CFG), had a 53% increase to its dividend yielding nearly 4% now. Their EPS payout ratio is only 37%. I’ll definitely be looking at these guys, there are some branches in my area so I’m slightly familiar with them.

Guys, these are the future Contenders and Champions here. If you pick the right ones you could see amazing returns. The more years to retirement, the more of these faster growing companies you should be looking at.

All of these companies have a 5+ year dividend increase streak which can be seen on the “Yrs” column.

I’ve sorted the list with highest yield at the top so you see some energy companies at the top.

Are any of these companies on your buy list?



April 2019 Dividend Contender CCC Rankings

by



ncf_power_ranking_b3_576.jpg
Photo courtesy of ESPN

This is one of my favorite screen to do! I’m sorry I haven’t had time to do one of these in a while. I know many of you thought it was useful so I’m going to try to start these again. Instead of combining the Champions, Contenders and Challengers, I plan to break it up into 3 articles.

What I Did

I decided to take the CCC spreadsheet and rank the stocks based on their 10-year YOC. If you are unfamiliar with what Yield-On-Cost is (YOC) then refer to my get started tab or see below for an example. If you don’t know about David Fish’s Champion, Challenger and Contender (CCC) spreadsheet then you are doing yourself a disservice, the link is also on my “get started” tab. The CCC list is now managed by Seeking Alpha author Justin Law.

Let’s say you purchased a stock at $10/share in 2013 that paid a 4% dividend or $0.40/share. In order to achieve a 10-year YOC of 10% that stock would need to pay out at least $1.00/share by 2023.

You may wonder why I care about a 10-year YOC instead of just the 1,3,5 and 10-year CAGR’s. The main factor that the CAGR leaves out is the starting dividend yield. The starting dividend in combination with the dividend growth rate will greatly influence your returns.

There’s a variation of this screen used alot by members of the Seeking Alpha community and it’s coined the “Chowder Rule”. This can also be found now on the CCC sheets. The rule basically adds the starting yield with the dividend growth rate (5-year CAGR) and looks for it to be higher than a certain number. While this can be a useful screen, there is still a discrepancy between dividend payers that have different growth rates but still arrive at the same number. For instance, a 3% yielder with 5% growth would get the same grade (an 8) as a 5% yielder with 3% growth. To me this is like adding apples to oranges. Holding a lower yielding stock with a higher growth rate will at some point provide higher returns assuming the growth rates don’t change. My 10-year YOC ranking would give this 3% and 5% yielder a 4.9 and 6.7 respectively.

Why I Did It

The purpose of this screening process will be to identify companies that have a high expected dividend growth rate combined with a starting yield that would produce greater returns. These companies may be good candidates for further research.

How I Did It The first step was to sort all stocks by their current dividend yield and eliminate any stocks not paying at least a 1% yield.  

Next I sorted all columns by TTM P/E and eliminated every stock with a TTM P/E over 30. I do realize this eliminates a lot of REIT’s, MLP’s, and telecom stocks. I’m ok with this since I’m not really targeting these stocks right now. We are also late in the bull cycle and I want to focus a little more on value.

Then I decided to eliminate any Contenders with a 5-Year CAGR < 10%. This screen eliminates a lot of slow growing companies like utilities.

I’ve added a new screen, PEG, that is PE/Growth. I didn’t apply this to Champions but on my Contenders and Challengers list I eliminated any Dividend Contenders with a PEG ratio greater than 2 and any Challengers with a PEG ratio greater than 1.5.

Next I took the latest CCC sheet and added some new columns to calculate a 10-year YOC using each stock’s 1,3, 5 and 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). I will call these new metrics 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5, and 10YOC10 for simplicity. After sorting, I looked for any companies that had a 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5 or 10YOC10 of 10% or higher.

Next, I wanted to look to see if the DGR was increasing or decreasing. I highlighted in red the 10-year YOC’s of companies that were both reducing their rate of increases and still under 10%.

This is a previous example of how it looked:

Companies got credit for increasing their dividends at faster rates. For example: The 10YOC5 for AWR in the example above was 4.97 and did not get highlighted in red because its 10YOC5 was higher than its 10YOC10 of 4.09.
     Next, I decided to remove any company that had a 10YOC1 in the red for Champions and a 10YOC1 or 10YOC3 in red for Contenders and Challengers.
For the Example Champions list above this removed LEG, MDT, NUE and WMT.   This new round of elimination dropped the list sizes for the Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 2(-6), 13(-6) and 48(-37) respectively.  

My Results

Contenders

There’s a lot of great companies on this list. Most people are familiar with Home Depot (HD) and some of the defense contractors like Northrop Grumman (NGC).

All of these companies have a 10+ year dividend increase streak which can be seen on the “Yrs” column.

I’ve sorted the list with highest yield at the top so you see some energy companies at the top.

Are any of these companies on your buy list?





April 2019 Dividend Champion CCC Rankings

by

ncf_power_ranking_b3_576.jpg
Photo courtesy of ESPN

This is one of my favorite screen to do! I’m sorry I haven’t had time to do one of these in a while. I know many of you thought it was useful so I’m going to try to start these again. Instead of combining the Champions, Contenders and Challengers, I plan to break it up into 3 articles.

What I Did

I decided to take the CCC spreadsheet and rank the stocks based on their 10-year YOC. If you are unfamiliar with what Yield-On-Cost is (YOC) then refer to my get started tab or see below for an example. If you don’t know about David Fish’s Champion, Challenger and Contender (CCC) spreadsheet then you are doing yourself a disservice, the link is also on my “get started” tab. The CCC list is now managed by Seeking Alpha author Justin Law.

Let’s say you purchased a stock at $10/share in 2013 that paid a 4% dividend or $0.40/share. In order to achieve a 10-year YOC of 10% that stock would need to pay out at least $1.00/share by 2023.

You may wonder why I care about a 10-year YOC instead of just the 1,3,5 and 10-year CAGR’s. The main factor that the CAGR leaves out is the starting dividend yield. The starting dividend in combination with the dividend growth rate will greatly influence your returns.

There’s a variation of this screen used alot by members of the Seeking Alpha community and it’s coined the “Chowder Rule”. This can also be found now on the CCC sheets. The rule basically adds the starting yield with the dividend growth rate (5-year CAGR) and looks for it to be higher than a certain number. While this can be a useful screen, there is still a discrepancy between dividend payers that have different growth rates but still arrive at the same number. For instance, a 3% yielder with 5% growth would get the same grade (an 8) as a 5% yielder with 3% growth. To me this is like adding apples to oranges. Holding a lower yielding stock with a higher growth rate will at some point provide higher returns assuming the growth rates don’t change. My 10-year YOC ranking would give this 3% and 5% yielder a 4.9 and 6.7 respectively.

Why I Did It

The purpose of this screening process will be to identify companies that have a high expected dividend growth rate combined with a starting yield that would produce greater returns. These companies may be good candidates for further research.

How I Did It The first step was to sort all stocks by their current dividend yield and eliminate any stocks not paying at least a 1% yield.  

Next I sorted all columns by TTM P/E and eliminated every stock with a TTM P/E over 30. I do realize this eliminates a lot of REIT’s, MLP’s, and telecom stocks. I’m ok with this since I’m not really targeting these stocks right now. We are also late in the bull cycle and I want to focus a little more on value.

Then I decided to eliminate any Champions with a 10-Year CAGR < 7%. This screen eliminates a lot of slow growing companies like utilities.


I’ve added a new screen, PEG, that is PE/Growth. I didn’t apply this to Champions but on my Contenders and Challengers list I eliminated any Dividend Contenders with a PEG ratio greater than 2 and any Challengers with a PEG ratio greater than 1.5.

Next I took the latest CCC sheet and added some new columns to calculate a 10-year YOC using each stock’s 1,3, 5 and 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). I will call these new metrics 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5, and 10YOC10 for simplicity. After sorting, I looked for any companies that had a 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5 or 10YOC10 of 10% or higher.

Next, I wanted to look to see if the DGR was increasing or decreasing. I highlighted in red the 10-year YOC’s of companies that were both reducing their rate of increases and still under 10%.

This is a previous example of how it looked:

Companies got credit for increasing their dividends at faster rates. For example: The 10YOC5 for AWR in the example above was 4.97 and did not get highlighted in red because its 10YOC5 was higher than its 10YOC10 of 4.09.
     Next, I decided to remove any company that had a 10YOC1 in the red for Champions and a 10YOC1 or 10YOC3 in red for Contenders and Challengers.
For the Example Champions list above this removed LEG, MDT, NUE and WMT.   This new round of elimination dropped the list sizes for the Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 2(-6), 13(-6) and 48(-37) respectively.  

My Results

Champions

There’s actually quite a few companies on the Champions list. Remember, all of these companies have paid rising dividends for at least 25 years. MO was griven credit for additional years since the spinoff.

It’s not surprising that MO is on the list. They have a high starting dividend and stellar dividend growth, especially with the two hikes last year. If you keep up with my blog, you will know MO is my largest position.

I recently sold out of WBA before the price collapse and it’s now looking attractive again.

I’d love to own some 3M or ITW. So many good companies and not enough funds.

I’m actually familiar with all but Cintas and BancFirst Corp.

Are any of these companies on your buy list? They should be.

June 2017 CCC Dividend Stock Rankings

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ncf_power_ranking_b3_576.jpg

It’s been a while since I’ve done one of these and the market is up quite a lot so it will be interesting to see the outcome.

What I Did

I decided to take the CCC spreadsheet and rank the stocks based on their 10-year YOC. If you are unfamiliar with what Yield-On-Cost is (YOC) then refer to my get started tab or see below for an example. If you don’t know about David Fish’s Champion, Challenger and Contender (CCC) spreadsheet then you are doing yourself a disservice, the link is also on my “get started” tab. It’s important to know about yield no matter which kind of stocks you are trading, for example even if you’re working in the forex market you need to Learn how to trade properly, including all of the technical terminology, in order to make the most of your investment. Here’s an example of yield and its effects.

Let’s say you purchased a stock at $10/share in 2013 that paid a 4% dividend or $0.40/share. In order to achieve a 10-year YOC of 10% that stock would need to pay out at least $1.00/share by 2023.

You may wonder why I care about a 10-year YOC instead of just the 1,3,5 and 10-year CAGR’s. The main factor that the CAGR leaves out is the starting dividend yield. The starting dividend in combination with the dividend growth rate will greatly influence your returns.

There’s a variation of this screen used alot by members of the Seeking Alpha community and it’s coined the “Chowder Rule”. This can also be found now on the CCC sheets. The rule basically adds the starting yield with the dividend growth rate (5-year CAGR) and looks for it to be higher than a certain number. While this can be a useful screen, there is still a discrepancy between dividend payers that have different growth rates but still arrive at the same number. For instance, a 3% yielder with 5% growth would get the same grade (an 8) as a 5% yielder with 3% growth. To me this is like adding apples to oranges. Holding a lower yielding stock with a higher growth rate will at some point provide higher returns assuming the growth rates don’t change. My 10-year YOC would give this 3% and 5% yielder a 4.9 and 6.7 respectively.

Why I Did It

The purpose of this screening process will be to identify companies that have a high expected dividend growth rate combined with a starting yield that would produce greater returns. These companies may be good candidates for further research.

How I Did It

The first step was to sort all stocks by their current dividend yield and eliminate any stocks not paying at least a 2% yield.

Next I sorted all columns by TTM P/E and eliminated every stock with a TTM P/E over 20. I do realize this eliminates a lot of REIT’s, MLP’s, and telecom stocks. I’m ok with this since I’m not really targeting these stocks right now. Then I decided to eliminate any Champions with a 10-Year CAGR < 5%, followed by any Contenders with a 5-Year CAGR < 7 % and finally any Challengers with a 3-year CAGR < 7%. This screen eliminates a lot of slow growing companies like utilities. This last screen dropped the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 12(-16), 41(-11) and 122(-10) respectively.

Next I took the latest CCC sheet and added some new columns to calculate a 10-year YOC using each stock’s 1,3, 5 and 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). I will call these new metrics 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5, and 10YOC10 for simplicity.

After sorting, I looked for any companies that had a 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5 or 10YOC10 of 10% or higher. I applied this to the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers.

Next, I wanted to look to see if the DGR was increasing or decreasing. I highlighted in red the 10-year YOC’s of companies that were both reducing their rate of increases and still under 10%.

This is a previous example of how it looked:

Companies got credit for increasing their dividends at faster rates. For example: The 10YOC5 for AWR in the example above was 4.97 and did not get highlighted in red because its 10YOC5 was higher than its 10YOC10 of 4.09.
Next, I decided to remove any company that had a 10YOC1 in the red for Champions and a 10YOC1 or 10YOC3 in red for Contenders and Challengers.

For the Example Champions list above this removed LEG, MDT, NUE and WMT.
This new round of elimination dropped the list sizes for the Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 2(-6), 13(-6) and 48(-37) respectively.

My Results (since the results were so small I decided to not eliminate Champions & Contenders based on P/E ratios this month)

Here are the 112(+9) candidates plus additional candidates not ruled out based on P/E left that may be worthy to do further research on:

Champions

Contenders

Challengers

On the Champions list, WOW, there’s only 2! Medtronic (MDT) and VFC Corp. This isn’t a surprise as retail stocks have done poorly as well as healthcare stocks after Trump took over. I do own MDT and have been thinking about adding to it. VFC stock also looks compelling.

Then there’s the Contender’s list with names like IBM and CVS which I own. I’ve added some CVS this year already. There’s also some other bank names I’m not too familiar with worthy of looking at.

The Challenger’s list is still large with all the financials and REITs. A lot of the banks have had 5 years since the Great Recession and are back on this list. I may have to add an additional screen soon for the challengers. There’s some solid companies on this list and if you find the right ones you will be handsomely rewarded. I’ve added some AMGN not too long ago. I’m not too familiar with the others besides CSCO and ABBV.

Keep in mind that this is just a starting point and I feel these companies need further research before making an investment.You can find previous months by following my CCC Rankings label.

*photo courtesy of ESPN

August CCC Dividend Stock Rankings

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ncf_power_ranking_b3_576.jpg

Another month has passed and it’s time for my monthly addition of the CCC rankings.

What I Did

I decided to take the CCC spreadsheet and rank the stocks based on their 10-year YOC.  If you are unfamiliar with what Yield-On-Cost is (YOC) then refer to my get started tab or see below for an example.  If you don’t know about David Fish’s Champion, Challenger and Contender (CCC) spreadsheet then you are doing yourself a disservice, the link is also on my “get started” tab.

Let’s say you purchased a stock at $10/share in 2013 that paid a 4% dividend or $0.40/share. In order to achieve a 10-year YOC of 10% that stock would need to pay out at least $1.00/share by 2023.

You may wonder why I care about a 10-year YOC instead of just the 1,3,5 and 10-year CAGR’s. The main factor that the CAGR leaves out is the starting dividend yield.  The starting dividend in combination with the dividend growth rate will greatly influence your returns.

There’s a variation of this screen used alot by members of the Seeking Alpha community and it’s coined the “Chowder Rule”.  This can also be found now on the CCC sheets.  The rule basically adds the starting yield with the dividend growth rate (5-year CAGR) and looks for it to be higher than a certain number.  While this can be a useful screen, there is still a discrepancy between dividend payers that have different growth rates but still arrive at the same number.  For instance, a 3% yielder with 5% growth would get the same grade (an 8) as a 5% yielder with 3% growth.  To me this is like adding apples to oranges.  Holding a lower yielding stock with a higher growth rate will at some point provide higher returns assuming the growth rates don’t change.  My 10-year YOC would give this 3% and 5% yielder a 4.9 and 6.7 respectively.

Why I Did It

The purpose of this screening process will be to identify companies that have a high expected dividend growth rate combined with a starting yield that would produce greater returns. These companies may be good candidates for further research.

How I Did It

The first step was to sort all stocks by their current dividend yield and eliminate any stocks not paying at least a 2% yield.

Next I sorted all columns by TTM P/E and eliminated every stock with a TTM P/E over 20.  I do realize this eliminates a lot of REIT’s, MLP’s, and telecom stocks.  I’m ok with this since I’m not really targeting these stocks right now.  Then I decided to eliminate any Champions with a 10-Year CAGR < 5%, followed by any Contenders with a 5-Year CAGR < 7 % and finally any Challengers with a 3-year CAGR < 7%.  This screen eliminates a lot of slow growing companies like utilities.

This last screen dropped the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 28(+4), 52(-3) and 132(+12) respectively.

Next I took the latest CCC sheet and added some new columns to calculate a 10-year YOC using each stock’s 1,3, 5 and 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). I will call these new metrics 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5, and 10YOC10 for simplicity.

After sorting, I looked for any companies that had a 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5 or 10YOC10 of 10% or higher. I applied this to the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers.

Next, I wanted to look to see if the DGR was increasing or decreasing. I highlighted in red the 10-year YOC’s of companies that were both reducing their rate of increases and still under 10%.

This is a previous example of how it looked:

Companies got credit for increasing their dividends at faster rates. For example: The 10YOC5 for AWR in the example above was 4.97 and did not get highlighted in red because its 10YOC5 was higher than its 10YOC10 of 4.09.
Next, I decided to remove any company that had a 10YOC1 in the red for Champions and a 10YOC1 or 10YOC3 in red for Contenders and Challengers.

For the Example Champions list above this removed LEG, MDT, NUE and WMT.
This new round of elimination dropped the list sizes for the Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 8(+0), 19(-1) and 85(+10) respectively.

My Results

Here are the 112(+9) candidates left that may be worthy to do further research on:
 

Champions08_15_champs_CCC

  

Contenders08_15_contenders_CCC

 Challengers

08_15_challengers_CCC

On the Champions list, XOM and MO were dropped due to a jump in their prices.  However, a new company was added, CSVI.  I’ll admit, I don’t know much about CSVI but they just increased their dividend from .22 to .25, a 13.6% increase just last month.

From Etrade:

Computer Services, Inc. provides service and information technology solutions. The Company delivers core processing, managed services, mobile and Internet solutions, payments processing, print and electronic distribution and regulatory compliance solutions to financial institutions and corporate entities across the nation. In addition to core processing, the Company’s integrated banking solutions include check imaging; cash management; branch and merchant capture; mobile and Internet banking; print and mail, and online document delivery services; corporate intranets; secure Web hosting; e-messaging; teller and platform services; automated teller machine (ATM) and debit card service and support; payments solutions; risk assessment; network management; cloud-based managed services, and compliance software and services for regulatory compliance, homeland security and fraud prevention.

Then there’s the Contender’s list with usual names like BBL, CAT and LMT.  There’s a few new names, CNQ, WMB, CMI and TXN to name a few.  I’m very interested in CMI myself and they are high on my buy list right now.  I think gas engines are going to be the future.

The Challenger’s list is again a giant list.  A lot of the banks have had 5 years since the Great Recession and are back on this list.  I may have to add an additional screen soon for the challengers.  The list is so long, it’s hard to view all on one page.  Keep in mind that these are the future contenders and champions.  There’s some solid companies on this list and if you find the right ones you will be handsomely rewarded.  For instance, take a look at the 5-year chart of MIC and the low P/E ratio.  It may be worth researching further.

Keep in mind that this is just a starting point and I feel these companies need further research before making an investment.You can find previous months by following my CCC Rankings label.

*photo courtesy of ESPN

July CCC Dividend Stock Rankings

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ncf_power_ranking_b3_576.jpg

It’s time for another addition of my CCC rankings by 10-year YOC.

*I haven’t done one of these in a while and it feels good to start posting again.  I’m excited to see what changes there might be.

What I Did

I decided to take the CCC spreadsheet and rank the stocks based on their 10-year YOC.  If you are unfamiliar with what Yield-On-Cost is (YOC) then refer to my resources tab or see below for an example.  If you don’t know about David Fish’s Champion, Challenger and Contender (CCC) spreadsheet then you are doing yourself a disservice, the link is also on my resources tab.

Let’s say you purchased a stock at $10/share in 2013 that paid a 4% dividend or $0.40/share. In order to achieve a 10-year YOC of 10% that stock would need to pay out at least $1.00/share by 2023.

You may wonder why I care about a 10-year YOC instead of just the 1,3,5 and 10-year CAGR’s. The main factor that the CAGR leaves out is the starting dividend yield.  The starting dividend in combination with the dividend growth rate will greatly influence your returns.

There’s a variation of this screen used alot by members of the Seeking Alpha community and it’s coined the “Chowder Rule”.  This can also be found now on the CCC sheets.  The rule basically adds the starting yield with the dividend growth rate (5-year CAGR) and looks for it to be higher than a certain number.  While this can be a useful screen, there is still a discrepancy between dividend payers that have different growth rates but still arrive at the same number.  For instance, a 3% yielder with 5% growth would get the same grade (an 8) as a 5% yielder with 3% growth.  Holding a lower yielding stock with a higher growth rate will at some point provide higher returns assuming the growth rates don’t change.  My 10-year YOC would give this 3% and 5% yielder a 4.9 and 6.7 respectively.

Why I Did It

The purpose of this screening process will be to identify companies that have a high expected dividend growth rate combined with a starting yield that would produce greater returns. These companies may be good candidates for further research.

How I Did It

The first step was to sort all stocks by their current dividend yield and eliminate any stocks not paying at least a 2% yield.

Next I sorted all columns by TTM P/E and eliminated every stock with a TTM P/E over 20.  I do realize this eliminates a lot of REIT’s, MLP’s, and telecom stocks.  I’m ok with this since I’m not really targeting these stocks right now.  Then I decided to eliminate any Champions with a 10-Year CAGR < 5%, followed by any Contenders with a 5-Year CAGR < 7 % and finally any Challengers with a 3-year CAGR < 7%.  This screen eliminates a lot of slow growing companies like utilities.

This last screen dropped the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 24(+1), 55(+1) and 120(+57) respectively.

Next I took the latest CCC sheet and added some new columns to calculate a 10-year YOC using each stock’s 1,3, 5 and 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). I will call these new metrics 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5, and 10YOC10 for simplicity.

After sorting, I looked for any companies that had a 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5 or 10YOC10 of 10% or higher. I applied this to the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers.

Next, I wanted to look to see if the DGR was increasing or decreasing. I highlighted in red the 10-year YOC’s of companies that were both reducing their rate of increases and still under 10%.

This is a previous example of how it looked:

Companies got credit for increasing their dividends at faster rates. For example: The 10YOC5 for AWR in the example above was 4.97 and did not get highlighted in red because its 10YOC5 was higher than its 10YOC10 of 4.09.

 

Next, I decided to remove any company that had a 10YOC1 in the red for Champions and a 10YOC1 or 10YOC3 in red for Contenders and Challengers.

 

For the Example Champions list above this removed LEG, MDT, NUE and WMT.
This new round of elimination dropped the list sizes for the Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 8(+3), 20(-4) and 75(+34) respectively.

My Results

 

Here are the 103(+33) candidates left that may be worthy to do further research on:

 

 If any of the below images are too small, right click and open in a new tab.  

Championschampions_july

  

Contenderscontenders_july

 

Challengerschallengers_july

There’s a lot of changes since I last ran this screen.

 

On the Champions list, ADM, DOV and TROW on now on here.  I’ve noticed a lot of DG investors picking up TROW fairly recently.  The oil giants XOM and CVX were close to making the list along with Parker Hannifin (PH), a maker of industrial equipment with a lot of clients in the aerospace and climate control industry.

 

Then there’s the Contender’s list with usual names like BBL.  BBL is close to making the list and has been here a while.  I own CAT, BBL and LMT on this list.  MSFT , IBM and QCOM would be of further interest to me for more exposure to the technology sector.

 

The Challenger’s list is giant now adding more than 30 new names!  Most of these new names are from the financial sector as it’s just been over 5 years since the Great Recession.  There’s lots to take a look at here.  A small food processing company, AMNF, caught my eye.  They have a low market cap but low debt and have been increasing their dividend.  I may do some additional research.

Keep in mind that this is just a starting point and I feel these companies need further research before making an investment.You can find previous months by following my CCC Rankings label.

*photo courtesy of ESPN

November 2014 CCC Rankings

by

ncf_power_ranking_b3_576.jpg

It’s time for another addition of my CCC rankings by 10-year YOC.

*I wasn’t able to get this out last month but was anxious to see what changes we might have now.

What I Did

I decided to take the CCC spreadsheet and rank the stocks based on their 10-year YOC.  If you are unfamiliar with what Yield-On-Cost is (YOC) then refer to my resources tab or see below for an example.  If you don’t know about David Fish’s Champion, Challenger and Contender (CCC) spreadsheet then you are doing yourself a disservice, the link is also on my resources tab.

Let’s say you purchased a stock at $10/share in 2013 that paid a 4% dividend or $0.40/share. In order to achieve a 10-year YOC of 10% that stock would need to pay out at least $1.00/share by 2023.

You may wonder why I care about a 10-year YOC instead of just the 1,3,5 and 10-year CAGR’s. The main factor that the CAGR leaves out is the starting dividend yield.  The starting dividend in combination with the dividend growth rate will greatly influence your returns.

There’s a variation of this screen used alot by members of the Seeking Alpha community and it’s coined the “Chowder Rule”.  This can also be found now on the CCC sheets.  The rule basically adds the starting yield with the dividend growth rate (5-year CAGR) and looks for it to be higher than a certain number.  While this can be a useful screen, there is still a discrepancy between dividend payers that have different growth rates but still arrive at the same number.  For instance, a 3% yielder with 5% growth would get the same grade (an 8) as a 5% yielder with 3% growth.  Holding a lower yielding stock with a higher growth rate will at some point provide higher returns assuming the growth rates don’t change.  My 10-year YOC would give this 3% and 5% yielder a 4.9 and 6.7 respectively.

Why I Did It

The purpose of this screening process will be to identify companies that have a high expected dividend growth rate combined with a starting yield that would produce greater returns. These companies may be good candidates for further research.

How I Did It

The first step was to sort all stocks by their current dividend yield and eliminate any stocks not paying at least a 2% yield.

 

Next I sorted all columns by TTM P/E and eliminated every stock with a TTM P/E over 20.  I do realize this eliminates a lot of REIT’s, MLP’s, and telecom stocks.  I’m ok with this since I’m not really targeting these stocks right now.  Then I decided to eliminate any Champions with a 10-Year CAGR < 5%, followed by any Contenders with a 5-Year CAGR < 7 % and finally any Challengers with a 3-year CAGR < 7%.  This screen eliminates a lot of slow growing companies like utilities.

This last screen dropped the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 23(-11), 54(+5) and 63(+7) respectively.

Next I took the latest CCC sheet and added some new columns to calculate a 10-year YOC using each stock’s 1,3, 5 and 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). I will call these new metrics 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5, and 10YOC10 for simplicity.

After sorting, I looked for any companies that had a 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5 or 10YOC10 of 10% or higher. I applied this to the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers.

 

Next, I wanted to look to see if the DGR was increasing or decreasing. I highlighted in red the 10-year YOC’s of companies that were both reducing their rate of increases and still under 10%.

 

This is a previous example of how it looked:
Companies got credit for increasing their dividends at faster rates. For example: The 10YOC5 for AWR in the example above was 4.97 and did not get highlighted in red because its 10YOC5 was higher than its 10YOC10 of 4.09.

 

Next, I decided to remove any company that had a 10YOC1 in the red for Champions and a 10YOC1 or 10YOC3 in red for Contenders and Challengers.

 

For the Example Champions list above this removed LEG, MDT, NUE and WMT.

 

This new round of elimination dropped the list sizes for the Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 5(-3), 24(+6) and 41(+2) respectively.

 

My Results
Here are the 70(+5) candidates left that may be worthy to do further research on:
 If any of the below images are too small, right click and open in a new tab.  
Champions10_14_CCC_Champions

  

Contenders10_14_CCC_Contenders

 

Challengers10_14_CCC_Challengers

On the Champions list, three companies were eleminated, well four if you count XOM which I includes since they were close.  ORI scraped by since they do have a 10-year YOC of over 10 and the rate of increases has stayed the same.  I don’t know anything about that company though.  I already own CVX on the list.  I was looking at HP at one time but ended up with another driller ,ESV.  I’m looking at WMT but have a high investment in TGT already so I’m good there.

 

There were a few new names on the Contender’s list.  I also left a few companies on that I highlighted in red since they were close to making it.  Those names included DE , GIS and BBL which I already own.  There’s several Oil & Gas names that may be worthy of checking out further.

 

The Challenger’s list is fairly large at 41 names.  CMI is a company I’d like to add at some point.  A lot of these names will make up the future Contender’s and Champion’s lists.

Keep in mind that this is just a starting point and I feel these companies need further research before making an investment.You can find previous months by following my CCC Rankings label.

*photo courtesy of ESPN

September 2014 CCC Rankings

by

ncf_power_ranking_b3_576.jpg

It’s time for another addition of my CCC rankings by 10-year YOC.

**Changes – This is the second month that I changed the P/E cap to 20 from 18.  I’m hoping that some higher growth stocks will now show up.

What I Did

I decided to take the CCC spreadsheet and rank the stocks based on their 10-year YOC.  If you are unfamiliar with what Yield-On-Cost is (YOC) then refer to my resources tab or see below for an example.  If you don’t know about David Fish’s Champion, Challenger and Contender (CCC) spreadsheet then you are doing yourself a disservice, the link is also on my resources tab.

Let’s say you purchased a stock at $10/share in 2013 that paid a 4% dividend or $0.40/share. In order to achieve a 10-year YOC of 10% that stock would need to pay out at least $1.00/share by 2023.

You may wonder why I care about a 10-year YOC instead of just the 1,3,5 and 10-year CAGR’s. The main factor that the CAGR leaves out is the starting dividend yield.  The starting dividend in combination with the dividend growth rate will greatly influence your returns.

There’s a variation of this screen used alot by members of the Seeking Alpha community and it’s coined the “Chowder Rule”.  This can also be found now on the CCC sheets.  The rule basically adds the starting yield with the dividend growth rate (5-year CAGR) and looks for it to be higher than a certain number.  While this can be a useful screen, there is still a discrepancy between dividend payers that have different growth rates but still arrive at the same number.  For instance, a 3% yielder with 5% growth would get the same grade (an 8) as a 5% yielder with 3% growth.  Holding a lower yielding stock with a higher growth rate will at some point provide higher returns assuming the growth rates don’t change.  My 10-year YOC would give this 3% and 5% yielder a 4.9 and 6.7 respectively.

Why I Did It

The purpose of this screening process will be to identify companies that have a high expected dividend growth rate combined with a starting yield that would produce greater returns. These companies may be good candidates for further research.

How I Did It

The first step was to sort all stocks by their current dividend yield and eliminate any stocks not paying at least a 2% yield.

 

Next I sorted all columns by TTM P/E and eliminated every stock with a TTM P/E over 20.  I do realize this eliminates a lot of REIT’s, MLP’s, and telecom stocks.  I’m ok with this since I’m not really targeting these stocks right now.  Then I decided to eliminate any Champions with a 10-Year CAGR < 5%, followed by any Contenders with a 5-Year CAGR < 7 % and finally any Challengers with a 3-year CAGR < 7%.  This screen eliminates a lot of slow growing companies like utilities.

This last screen dropped the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 34, 49 and 56 respectively.

Next I took the latest CCC sheet and added some new columns to calculate a 10-year YOC using each stock’s 1,3, 5 and 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). I will call these new metrics 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5, and 10YOC10 for simplicity.

After sorting, I looked for any companies that had a 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5 or 10YOC10 of 10% or higher. I applied this to the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers.

 

Next, I wanted to look to see if the DGR was increasing or decreasing. I highlighted in red the 10-year YOC’s of companies that were both reducing their rate of increases and still under 10%.

 

This is a previous example of how it looked:
Companies got credit for increasing their dividends at faster rates. For example: The 10YOC5 for AWR in the example above was 4.97 and did not get highlighted in red because its 10YOC5 was higher than its 10YOC10 of 4.09.

 

Next, I decided to remove any company that had a 10YOC1 in the red for Champions and a 10YOC1 or 10YOC3 in red for Contenders and Challengers.

 

For the Example Champions list above this removed LEG, MDT, NUE and WMT.

 

This new round of elimination dropped the list sizes for the Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 8, 18 and 39 respectively.

 

My Results
Here are the 54 candidates left that may be worthy to do further research on:
Champions09_14_CCC_Champions

  

Contenders09_14_CCC_Contenders

 

Challengers09_14_CCC_Challengers

On the Champions list, there are no new companies but many were eliminated.  MO is still on the list and I just recently picked up another 100 shares.  

 

There was just one new name on the Contender’s list, TEVA.  TEVA has been on before.  TEVA is still a full position for me, it’s up over 35% since buying shares in the high 30’s.  I really like the generics market and they are the largest player.  There were also several companies removed from the list.

 

The Challenger’s list added a couple new companies including NRIM and SAFT.

Keep in mind that this is just a starting point and I feel these companies need further research before making an investment.You can find previous months by following my CCC Rankings label.

*photo courtesy of ESPN

August 2014 CCC Rankings

by

ncf_power_ranking_b3_576.jpgIt’s time for another addition of my CCC rankings by 10-year YOC.

**Changes – I’ve now changed the P/E cap to 20 from 18.  I’m hoping that some higher growth stocks will now show up.

What I Did

I decided to take the CCC spreadsheet and rank the stocks based on their 10-year YOC.  If you are unfamiliar with what Yield-On-Cost is (YOC) then refer to my resources tab or see below for an example.  If you don’t know about David Fish’s Champion, Challenger and Contender (CCC) spreadsheet then you are doing yourself a disservice, the link is also on my resources tab.

Let’s say you purchased a stock at $10/share in 2013 that paid a 4% dividend or $0.40/share. In order to achieve a 10-year YOC of 10% that stock would need to pay out at least $1.00/share by 2023.

You may wonder why I care about a 10-year YOC instead of just the 1,3,5 and 10-year CAGR’s. The main factor that the CAGR leaves out is the starting dividend yield.  The starting dividend in combination with the dividend growth rate will greatly influence your returns.

There’s a variation of this screen used alot by members of the Seeking Alpha community and it’s coined the “Chowder Rule”.  This can also be found now on the CCC sheets.  The rule basically adds the starting yield with the dividend growth rate (5-year CAGR) and looks for it to be higher than a certain number.  While this can be a useful screen, there is still a discrepancy between dividend payers that have different growth rates but still arrive at the same number.  For instance, a 3% yielder with 5% growth would get the same grade (an 8) as a 5% yielder with 3% growth.  Holding a lower yielding stock with a higher growth rate will at some point provide higher returns assuming the growth rates don’t change.  My 10-year YOC would give this 3% and 5% yielder a 4.9 and 6.7 respectively.

Why I Did It

The purpose of this screening process will be to identify companies that have a high expected dividend growth rate combined with a starting yield that would produce greater returns. These companies may be good candidates for further research.

How I Did It

The first step was to sort all stocks by their current dividend yield and eliminate any stocks not paying at least a 2% yield.

Next I sorted all columns by TTM P/E and eliminated every stock with a TTM P/E over 20.  I do realize this eliminates a lot of REIT’s, MLP’s, and telecom stocks.  I’m ok with this since I’m not really targeting these stocks right now.  Then I decided to eliminate any Champions with a 10-Year CAGR < 5%, followed by any Contenders with a 5-Year CAGR < 7 % and finally any Challengers with a 3-year CAGR < 7%.  This screen eliminates a lot of slow growing companies like utilities.


This last screen dropped the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 32, 53 and 57 respectively.

Next I took the latest CCC sheet and added some new columns to calculate a 10-year YOC using each stock’s 1,3, 5 and 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). I will call these new metrics 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5, and 10YOC10 for simplicity.

After sorting, I looked for any companies that had a 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5 or 10YOC10 of 10% or higher. I applied this to the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers.

Next, I wanted to look to see if the DGR was increasing or decreasing. I highlighted in red the 10-year YOC’s of companies that were both reducing their rate of increases and still under 10%.

This is a previous example of how it looked:
Companies got credit for increasing their dividends at faster rates. For example: The 10YOC5 for AWR in the example above was 4.97 and did not get highlighted in red because its 10YOC5 was higher than its 10YOC10 of 4.09.

Next, I decided to remove any company that had a 10YOC1 in the red for Champions and a 10YOC1 or 10YOC3 in red for Contenders and Challengers.

For the Example Champions list above this removed LEG, MDT, NUE and WMT.

This new round of elimination dropped the list sizes for the Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 8, 18 and 39 respectively.

My Results
Here are the 44 candidates left that may be worthy to do further research on:

Champions08_14_CCC_Champions

  

Contenders08_14_CCC_Contenders

 

Challengers08_14_CCC_Challengers

On the Champions list, there were a few changes from the last list. First, TGT, MO, NC and AWR are on the list.  Actually TGT has a slightly higher P/E but I still included them because they have really good dividend growth and a nice starting yield.  MO is back on the last after one month off.  NC is still on the list but after NC’s latest increase in May of only 3%, this company won’t be on the list next year.   AWR is now on my list after I upped the p/e.  I’m actually considering a purchase in AWR soon.

 

There were a few new companies on the Contender’s list like CAT.  After CAT’s recent dividend raise they are back on the list.  I also included a couple companies that are close to making the list, DE and GIS.  DE increased their dividend fairly recently by 18% and I mentioned that here.

 

The Challenger’s list added a few new companies including UNP due to me allowing a larger P/E.  I also included SNP and BCE since they weren’t too far off.


Keep in mind that this is just a starting point and I feel these companies need further research before making an investment.You can find previous months by following my CCC Rankings label.

*photo courtesy of ESPN

July 2014 10-Year YOC CCC Rankings

by

ncf_power_ranking_b3_576.jpg

Happy holiday week to everyone!   It’s time for another addition of my CCC rankings by 10-year YOC.

Sorry I was busy last month and wasn’t able to get this update out in time.  With higher markets and some volatility, there have been some changes to the lists.

What I Did

I decided to take the CCC spreadsheet and rank the stocks based on their 10-year YOC.  If you are unfamiliar with what Yield-On-Cost is (YOC) then refer to my resources tab or see below for an example.  If you don’t know about David Fish’s Champion, Challenger and Contender (CCC) spreadsheet then you are doing yourself a disservice, the link is also on my resources tab.

Let’s say you purchased a stock at $10/share in 2013 that paid a 4% dividend or $0.40/share. In order to achieve a 10-year YOC of 10% that stock would need to pay out at least $1.00/share by 2023.

You may wonder why I care about a 10-year YOC instead of just the 1,3,5 and 10-year CAGR’s. The main factor that the CAGR leaves out is the starting dividend yield.  The starting dividend in combination with the dividend growth rate will greatly influence your returns.

There’s a variation of this screen used alot by members of the Seeking Alpha community and it’s coined the “Chowder Rule”.  This can also be found now on the CCC sheets.  The rule basically adds the starting yield with the dividend growth rate (5-year CAGR) and looks for it to be higher than a certain number.  While this can be a useful screen, there is still a discrepancy between dividend payers that have different growth rates but still arrive at the same number.  For instance, a 3% yielder with 5% growth would get the same grade (an 8) as a 5% yielder with 3% growth.  Holding a lower yielding stock with a higher growth rate will at some point provide higher returns assuming the growth rates don’t change.  My 10-year YOC would give this 3% and 5% yielder a 4.9 and 6.7 respectively.

Why I Did It

The purpose of this screening process will be to identify companies that have a high expected dividend growth rate combined with a starting yield that would produce greater returns. These companies may be good candidates for further research.

How I Did It

The first step was to sort all stocks by their current dividend yield and eliminate any stocks not paying at least a 2% yield.
Next I sorted all columns by TTM P/E and eliminated every stock with a TTM P/E over 18.  I do realize this eliminates a lot of REIT’s, MLP’s, and telecom stocks.  I’m ok with this since I’m not really targeting these stocks right now.  Then I decided to eliminate any Champions with a 10-Year CAGR < 5%, followed by any Contenders with a 5-Year CAGR < 7 % and finally any Challengers with a 3-year CAGR < 7%.  This screen eliminates a lot of slow growing companies like utilities.

This last screen dropped the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 15(-1), 33(-18) and 38(-3) respectively.

Next I took the latest CCC sheet and added some new columns to calculate a 10-year YOC using each stock’s 1,3, 5 and 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR). I will call these new metrics 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5, and 10YOC10 for simplicity.

After sorting, I looked for any companies that had a 10YOC1, 10YOC3, 10YOC5 or 10YOC10 of 10% or higher. I applied this to the list of Champions, Contenders and Challengers.
Next, I wanted to look to see if the DGR was increasing or decreasing. I highlighted in red the 10-year YOC’s of companies that were both reducing their rate of increases and still under 10%.
This is a previous example of how it looked:
Companies got credit for increasing their dividends at faster rates. For example: The 10YOC5 for AWR in the example above was 4.97 and did not get highlighted in red because its 10YOC5 was higher than its 10YOC10 of 4.09.
Next, I decided to remove any company that had a 10YOC1 in the red for Champions and a 10YOC1 or 10YOC3 in red for Contenders and Challengers.
For the Example Champions list above this removed LEG, MDT, NUE and WMT.
This new round of elimination dropped the list sizes for the Champions, Contenders and Challengers to 4(-1), 10(+1) and 30 (+4) respectively.
My Results
Here are the 44 candidates left that may be worthy to do further research on:

Champions07_14_CCC_Champions

 (click to enlarge)
 

Contenders07_14_CCC_Contenders

 (click to enlarge)
 

Challengers07_14_CCC_Challengers

(click to enlarge)
On the Champions list, there were a few changes from the last list. First, CVX, FDO and MO did not make the list this time since their stock prices have increased.  We have a new company on the list, NC.   NC’s latest increase in May was only 3% so this company won’t be on the list next year.   With many solid companies pushing P/E’s well over 18, this list will continue to be small.
There were a few new companies on the Contender’s list like DE, LMT and WEC.  If you notice, I included DE since the CCC list hasn’t taken this year’s increase into account.  If you didn’t notice, DE increased their dividend by 18% and I mentioned that here.

The Challenger’s list added a few new companies.  Additional companies now include AVX, CCE and NOV to name a few.  I also left SNP on the list since they were close to making the cut.

I like this list as an additional watch list.  I know I posted recently a Watch list of 50 companies that I’m interested in owning at some point if the price is right.  It’s more of a static list that I’ll change as I see fit.  The thing is that I’m already around my target portfolio size of 40, so the majority of my purchases will be of existing positions.  I did add a 10-year YOC column based off the 5-year CAGR to my portfolio and watch list though.

Keep in mind that this is just a starting point and I feel these companies need further research before making an investment.You can find previous months by following my CCC Rankings label.
*photo courtesy of ESPN

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